On Tuesday, September 27, the European single currency against the dollar resides in early trading near the mark of 1,124.
Yesterday in the first half of the day the Euro rose in price due to statistics of Germany, and interest in the dollar was minimal due to low market risk and the upcoming televised debates between the main presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald trump.
Note that, according to published data, the index of business optimism of Ifo of Germany amounted in September to 109,5 points, while analysts had expected 106.3 points, while the previous reading was revised for the better – with 106.2 points to 106.3 points.
Meanwhile, heightened expectations that the fed is unlikely to increase the key rate in the coming months, put additional pressure on the dollar. It should be noted that the futures market players estimate the probability of the fed rate hike in December to 52% (according to the Fed Watch tool from CME Group), while on Friday the probability was 54%.
In the afternoon, the single European currency surrendered some of their positions against the background of ECB President Mario Draghi, who said that there are challenges for the Eurozone economy. According to him, one of such challenges is the low interest rates. Another problem lies in the results of the referendum in Britain on EU membership and economic consequences for the Eurozone. Draghi noted that the final result of those negotiations has led to uncertainty, with downside risks persist.
Today the bidders are advised to pay attention to the publication of dynamics of import price index for August and consumer confidence report for September. In addition, today will be a Vice Chairman of the fed Stanley Fischer.
On 4-hour chart below, EUR/USD, trading in the framework of the “descending triangle”, is trying to break the support line in 1,1240. Slow stochastic lines are in favor of bears, so in case of breaking the above level, the pair may test the next level in 1,1224.
Source: MetaTrader Finam Ltd, 4-Hour Chart