The ruble is growing, but it is unlikely to last long



Commodity market

Oil prices again declined after a report on commercial stocks of oil and oil products in the underground vaults of the United States was quite negative. Crude oil inventories decreased by 7.0 million barrels and petrol fuel rose by 8.3 million Decrease in U.S. consumption, of course, a negative signal given the fact that the price is close to a 18-mesenich highs. However, unemployment is still a short-term factor and long-term support rising prices. OPEC reduces production. Saudi Arabia had notified consumers about the price increase and reduced supply in the Asian market. Accordingly, at relatively low price levels of Brent contracts can be interesting for long positions. For example, in the area of 54,50.

The stock market

US stocks under moderate pressure. However, on Friday 6 anavra at 13.30 GMT will be published data on the labor market for December. Investors predict a rise in the number of employees in 170 thousand. Considering that the same indicator, according to ADP Inc., recorded an increase of employment of 150 thousand, we can expect that the official data from the Bureau of labor statistics will be worse than expected. Indices are now near historical highs, and a weak report may be cause for a downward correction. However, announced Donald trump tax incentives are yet to support long-term trend and the decrease can be considered as a reason for shopping. For futures on the Dow Jones (YM) is an interesting area of 19,500.

The foreign exchange market

Russian ruble (USD/RUB) is strengthened under the influence of several factors. First, oil prices are near 18-month highs and have potential for growth (see above). Second, the dollar is currently weakening along the entire global currency market. There is some uncertainty in anticipation of the inauguration of Donald trump. In addition. The fed signaled to the market that a significant strengthening of the dollar could trigger a slowdown in economic growth and a slower increase rate. However, a strengthening of the ruble is unlikely to continue.

Representatives of the Bank of Russia gave to understand that 59 is the pain threshold for the economy. The strengthening of the national currency below this level could trigger intervention by the Central Bank to maintain a lower rate and replenishment of foreign exchange reserves. Given that in terms of the weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank has unlimited resource, it will actually cool the ardor of buyers of the Russian currency. Most likely, we are still entrenched in the range of 59 to 61 rubles to the dollar.



The ruble is growing, but it is unlikely to last long 06.01.2017

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