In recent days, the quotes of Brent crude oil showing a downward bias, lack of growth drivers. And now we can talk about the General deterioration of moods in the market of hydrocarbons and the fading optimism. This is evidenced by a short-term positive reaction of black gold to fresh weekly data from the U.S. Department of energy, which were pretty good.
First, the increase in reserves was more modest forecasts (+2.3 million barrels. against +3.1 million barrels). Secondly, again decreased the amount of oil production (-3,9% yoy, to the lowest since November 2014 level 9,022 million barrels./day). Thirdly, significantly reduced inventories in Cushing and gasoline inventories. Despite the favorable trend, which began to show signs of rebalancing of the market, the prices remain in the doldrums and unable to return to growth because of the anxiety about the April meeting of the OPEC+.
Reasons for concern really are. Scepticism about the Doha agreement, more and more makes itself felt. For example, the other day Kuwait and Saudi Arabia had planned to resume the development of the field Khafji, which was suspended in the fall of 2014. This indicates the prospects for increasing oil production in these two countries, which would go against the initiative to freeze production.
We believe that the end of the week a barrel of Brent will remain in the range of $39-42. Risk factor for oil can become the Friday employment report in the US. A strong indicator can cheer up the dollar, which will negatively affect quotations of black gold.