Last Friday world financial markets lost more than $ 2 trillion on Friday, according to S&P Global. This is the worst outflow in history. For comparison, in September 2008, this figure was less (1.9 trillion dollars). The pain from such events long lives in the hearts of investors. Investors can be calm, say nothing special in the market of Finance is not happening, but after black Friday they will choose defensive strategies, and the purchase of shares will be speculative. The US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said that Breaksit will be an “additional obstacle” to the growth of the American and world economy, but “there is a feeling that develops financial crisis.” Who need such statements at the time when the ship of global Finance have exhausted the reserve of buoyancy? If there were rumors about the possible bankruptcy of the insurance company Lloyd’s is “the edge”.
In the UK, immigration was the main topic of debate Bracito. According to a poll by The Independent, before the referendum, 52% of Britons thought that if Britain did not join the EU, it would be easier to control migration. An active supporter of Brexia, member of the Board of the anti-European customized of the London office of Havering Lawrence Webb told NPR that the case is not necessarily in the skin color or race of people – just “people notice that their standard of living falls”. And exactly the same situation in many other European countries. There are also people noticed that their quality of life is diminished. For example, in many European capitals in the street was much dirtier than it was 10 years ago. In Germany some länder native Germans evicted from social housing into the street, freeing it to immigrants from Syria.
HSBC Bank published in the article new results of the survey “Eurobarometer” from the European Commission, according to which, for Europeans, the priority issue is immigration. In 2015, the migration worried the Europeans are stronger than the economic situation, unemployment and public finances. Growth antiemigrantskoy” sentiment began in the second half of 2012, but the authorities all this is carefully concealed under the guise of tolerance. Now it is impossible to hide. These fears can also become the Central idea of the supporters of leaving the EU in other countries, if they want to hold a similar referendum, according to a note by HSBC.
Yesterday, oil prices fell due to the risk of recession in Europe. That’s an emotional response – many experts, including Goldman Sachs analysts noted that oil demand in the UK is negligible on the world market. Goldman Sachs says that even in case of a fall of the growth of the British economy by 2% (maximum estimate) the demand for oil in Britain would fall by only 1%, that is 16 thousand barrels per day, which amounts to 0,016% of global demand. But there is a positive factor for oil – now the fed will be wary of strengthening of the dollar, and will not pursue tight monetary policy. Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland does not expect US fed to raise rates until the end of 2017! It turns out that the positive and negative factors after a referendum in the UK mutually balance each other. The most logical in the coming days, the scenario would be the continuation of the lateral dynamics. Then some unknown factor “X” will push the oil out of the range 46 to 53 of the dollar up or down (probably down).