Brent to push off from the lower boundary of its range in March, which partly contributed to the publication of a report from the American petroleum Institute (API), which showed a small increase over the past week. In addition, a report from the Ministry of energy has shown a growth of commercial stocks only 2,299 million barrels against the forecast 3,167 million in Addition, it became known that the volume of production in the U.S. declined by 3.9%. All this helped initially to get to a level of $ 41,33./Barr., however, the article from Reuters, interrupted the idyll. Iran and Iraq, according to the Agency, increase production. In March, the volume has increased by 100 thousand barrels per day to 32,47 million barrels a day. Of course, this is not what was expected by the markets, and Brent returned to the area of 40,00. Everything that happens only confirms the loyalty of our forecast at the beginning of the week: oil still under pressure and will adhere to very narrow ranges until the end of the week. Most likely, the auction will be limited to the area of 40,00 – 42,00.
Dynamics of USD/JPY is of particular interest as a couple for two months kept in a pretty clear range, and anticipated reasons for leaving it obvious no. If so, the current movement of the pair down is another opportunity to pick up a pair at the lower border to the upper border. Janet Yellen helped push the pair below 112,00, but in the second half of the day on Wednesday we saw a correction in the area 112,40. This only confirms that in this area the yen is perceived as attractive for sales. A further purpose on the way up can be 113,50.
Speech by Janet Yellen on Tuesday, in fact, can be called the most important event of the last month. Now, without any “but” and “if”, the market realized that the conversation is not just about the date of the next rate hike, and about its necessity, in principle. Comments by the fed chair confirmed that the FOMC is concerned about the pace of global economic growth much stronger than previously thought. At the moment the futures rate on Federal funds provide 100% probability of a rate hike already in December this year. Before, many believed that it would happen in June. What this means for the US stock market? The indices again got a break and can enjoy this fact a few days until the report is published on the employment levels of payments statements (Non-Farm Payrolls). By S&P (ES) not exclude the move to 2080 and the Dow Jones (YM) – 17800.