Can we expect to see a seasonal surprise on the US labor market?




According to yesterday’s publication from the U.S. Department of energy, commercial stocks of oil increased by only zanetell ha2,3 million barrels, or 0,4% – до534,8 million barrels. The consensus forecast prednisonebreast the stocks of 3.3 million barrels.According to the latest data, the rate of oil production in the country declined during the reporting period to 0,2% or na16 thousand barrels sucky до9,022 million barrels sutki.In addition, decreased oil reserves in the terminal Cushing to 0,2 million barrels— million barrels до66.After the publication of the report, oil prices have accelerated the positive momentum in этомBrent traded pozene $40,50 saburral, and WTI— $39,67 saburral. However, oil “conquest” did not last long: suddenly unfolded in the direction of their growth, the dollar leveled, IPO as of 09:00 MSK barrel of Brent have once again traded at $38,81, while the barrel of WTI is $37,82.

Growth in the U.S. stock market actually continues at that moment on Tuesday, the Chairman of the US Federal reserve Janet Yellen, as we know, has hinted at a more measured pace of raising interest rates this year, after another “verbal QE”. Low rates continue to support risky assets — primarily, commodity futures and shares.With the beginning of the year индексDJIAвырос 1.7%, and consistently soft tone of rhetoric Janet Yellen contributed to cliopatria about recession in the USA has declined.However, the growth rates and trade volumes also slowed down in the last session — and it is not good. I have the feeling that in the heat of a General discussion about the chances of further monetary tightening by the fed, investors have lost the feeling of a hard surface.

Meanwhile,as shown by data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the growth rate of employment in the US private sector slowed slightly in March, but exceeded the average market expectations. According to yesterday’s publication, this month the number of employed increased by 200 thousand people compared with the figure for January at the level of 205 thousand, the Consensus forecast had expected the number of employed will increase by 194 thousand In the whole, this publication was neutral in terms of its impact on the market. Moment of truth today – undoubtedly the main publication of the day – the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sector of the USA. Perhaps Janet Yellen, calling for monetary caution Tuesday, knew something more than we do.

In the end, the components of the Dow Jones ended the day with a positive margin (20 of 30 closed in black). Outsider steel accieved (BA,-1,79%) amid reports of the planned layoffs of about 4,000 employees in the first half (looks like the aviation concern on the background is too strong the dollar really is not very much).More the others grew акцииVisa(V+1,86%).In turn, almost all the sectors of the S&P 500 rose.The leader of Stalker industrial materials (+1.2 per cent). More than the rest of crisiscenter of industrial production (-0.4 per cent).



Can we expect to see a seasonal surprise on the US labor market? 31.03.2016

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